14 big trends to watch in 2013
from sensor journalism to lean government to preemptive health care, 2013 will be interesting.
2012 was a remarkable year for technology, government and society. In my 2012 year in review, I looked back at 10 trends that mattered. Below, I look ahead to the big ideas and technologies that will change the world, again.
In 2012, people still kept publishing data in PDFs or trapping it in paper. In 2013, as entrepreneurs and venture capitalists look to use government data as a platform, civic startups that digitize documents will help make data not just open but liquid, flowing across sectors previously stuck in silos. The trend will not be limited to government: as Ryan Block pointed out at the New York Times, personal data will also become more liquid in the years ahead as well.
In 2012, mobile technology, social media and the Internet have given first responders and government officials new ways to improve situational awareness during natural disasters, likeHurricane Sandy. A growing number of free or low-cost online tools empowers people to do more than just donate money or blood: now, they can donate, time, expertise or, increasingly, act as sensors. In 2013, expect mobile sensors, “sensor journalism” and efforts like Safecast to add to that skein of networked accountability.
Data as infrastructure
When natural disasters loomed in 2012, public open government data feeds became critical infrastructure. In 2013, more of the public sector will see open data as a strategic national resource that merits stewardship and investment.
The same peer networks that helped build the Internet are forming around building digital civic infrastructure, from collaboration between newsrooms to open government hackers working together around the country. 2012 was a breakout year for GitHub’s use in government and media. 2013 will be even bigger.
Next year, more people will take a risk to tap into the rewards of a health data commons. Open science will be part of the reward equation. (Don’t expect revolutionary change here, just evolutionary change.)
The idea of “lean government” gained some traction in 2012, as cities and agencies experimented with applying the lean startup approach to the public sector. With GOV.UK, the British government both redefined the online government platform and showed how citizen-centric design can be done right. In 2013, the worth of a lean government approach will be put to the test when the work of the White House Innovation Fellows is released.
Gartner analyst Andrea DiMaio is now looking at the intersection of government and technology through the lens of “smart government.” In 2013, I expect to hear much more about that, from smartphones to smarter cities to smart disclosure.
Whether it’s co-working, bike sharing, exchanging books and videos, or cohabiting hackerspaces and community garden spaces, there are green shoots throughout the economy that suggest the way we work, play and learn is changing due to the impact of connection technologies and the Great Recession. One of the most dynamic sectors of the sharing economy is the trend toward more collaborative consumption — and the entrepreneurs have followed, from Airbnb to Getable to Freecycle. The private sector and public sector are saving real money through collaborative consumption. Given support from across the ideological spectrum, expect more adoption in 2013.
Preemptive health care
Data science and new health IT offer an extraordinary opportunity to revolutionize health care, a combination that gave Dr. Atul Gawande hope for health care when we spoke in 2012. In 2013, watch for a shift toward “preemptive health care,” as behavioral science becomes part of how affordable care organizations try to keep patients healthy.
Predictive data analytics
Just as doctors hope to detect disease earlier, professionals across industry and the publicsector will look to make sense of the data deluge using new tools next year. Predictive data analytics saved lives and taxpayer dollars in New York City in 2012. U.S. cities have now formed a working group to share predictive data analytics skills. Look for data science to be applied to regulatory data more in 2013.
Algorithmic censorship and algorithmic transparency
Expect speech online to continue be a flashpoint next year. As algorithmic censorship becomes a common approach to moderation on social networks and predictive analytics are applied in law enforcement, media, commerce and regulation, there will be even more interest inunderstanding bias in these systems and the civil rights implications of big data.
Personal data ownership
Should the Freedom of Information Act apply to private companies? In 2012, a report from the World Economic Forum and McKinsey Consulting described personal data as a new asset class. Much of the time, however, people are separated from their personal data. In 2013, expect to see more data disclosed to consumers and citizens and applied in new choice engines.
In 2012, Guardian Editor Alan Rusbridger shared 10 principles for open journalism. While the process of gathering and sharing news in a hyper-networked environment will only grow more messy as more people gain access to tools to publish around the world, this trend isn’t going backward. Despite the trend toward the “broadcast-ification of social media,” there are many more of us listening and sharing now than ever before. Expect journalism to be a more participatory experience in 2013.
Automation, artificial intelligence and employment
The combination of big data, automation and artificial intelligence looked like something new in 2012, from self-driving cars to e-discovery software to “robojournalism” to financial advisers tomedical diagnostics. Wherever it’s possible, “software is eating the world.” In 2013, the federal government will need an innovation agenda to win the race against the machines.